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  4. Where is the EU headed given its current climate policy? A stakeholder-driven model inter-comparison
 
research article

Where is the EU headed given its current climate policy? A stakeholder-driven model inter-comparison

Nikas, Alexandros
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Elia, Alessia
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Boitier, Baptiste
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November 1, 2021
Science Of The Total Environment

Recent calls to do climate policy research with, rather than for, stakeholders have been answered in non-modelling science. Notwithstanding progress in modelling literature, however, very little of the scenario space traces back to what stakeholders are ultimately concerned about. With a suite of eleven integrated assessment, energy system and sectoral models, we carry out a model inter-comparison for the EU, the scenario logic and research questions of which have been formulated based on stakeholders' concerns. The output of this process is a scenario framework exploring where the region is headed rather than how to achieve its goals, extrapolating its current policy efforts into the future. We find that Europe is currently on track to overperforming its pre-2020 40% target yet far from its newest ambition of 55% emissions cuts by 2030, as well as looking at a 1.0-2.35 GtCO(2) emissions range in 2050. Aside from the importance of transport electrification, deployment levels of carbon capture and storage are found intertwined with deeper emissions cuts and with hydrogen diffusion, with most hydrogen produced post-2040 being blue. Finally, the multi-model exercise has highlighted benefits from deeper decarbonisation in terms of energy security and jobs, and moderate to high renewables-dominated investment needs. (C) 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148549
Web of Science ID

WOS:000691601700013

Author(s)
Nikas, Alexandros
Elia, Alessia
Boitier, Baptiste
Koasidis, Konstantinos
Doukas, Haris
Cassetti, Gabriele
Anger-Kraavi, Annela
Bui, Ha
Campagnolo, Lorenza
De Miglio, Rocco
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Date Issued

2021-11-01

Publisher

ELSEVIER

Published in
Science Of The Total Environment
Volume

793

Article Number

148549

Subjects

Environmental Sciences

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Environmental Sciences & Ecology

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europe

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energy system models

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model inter-comparison

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stakeholder engagement

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climate policy

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integrated assessment models

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energy system

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multimodel assessment

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emissions

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scenarios

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sector

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decarbonisation

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science

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reduction

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knowledge

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pathways

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
LEURE  
Available on Infoscience
September 11, 2021
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/181381
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