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research article

Adapt or Perish: Evolutionary Rescue in a Gradually Deteriorating Environment

Marrec, Loïc
•
Bitbol, Anne-Florence  
August 27, 2020
Genetics

We investigate the evolutionary rescue of a microbial population in a gradually deteriorating environment, through a combination of analytical calculations and stochastic simulations. We consider a population destined for extinction in the absence of mutants, which can only survive if mutants sufficiently adapted to the new environment arise and fix. We show that mutants that appear later during the environment deterioration have a higher probability to fix. The rescue probability of the population increases with a sigmoidal shape when the product of the carrying capacity and of the mutation probability increases. Furthermore, we find that rescue becomes more likely for smaller population sizes and/or mutation probabilities if the environment degradation is slower, which illustrates the key impact of the rapidity of environment degradation on the fate of a population. We also show that our main conclusions are robust across various types of adaptive mutants, including specialist and generalist ones, as well as mutants modeling antimicrobial resistance evolution. We further express the average time of appearance of the mutants that do rescue the population and the average extinction time of those that do not. Our methods can be applied to other situations with continuously variable fitnesses and population sizes, and our analytical predictions are valid in the weak-to-moderate mutation regime.

  • Details
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Type
research article
DOI
10.1534/genetics.120.303624
Author(s)
Marrec, Loïc
Bitbol, Anne-Florence  
Date Issued

2020-08-27

Published in
Genetics
Volume

216

Issue

2

Start page

573

End page

583

Subjects

Evolutionary rescue

•

Deteriorating environment

•

Adaptation

•

Variable fitness

•

Variable population size

•

Modeling

•

Theory

•

Stochastic simulations

•

Microbial population

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
UPBITBOL  
Available on Infoscience
September 1, 2020
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/171283
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