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research article

Quantifying the impacts of climate change and extreme climate events on energy systems

Perera, A. T. D.  
•
Nik, Vahid M.
•
Chen, Deliang
Show more
2020
Nature Energy

Climate induced extreme weather events and weather variations will affect both the demand of energy and the resilience of energy supply systems. The specific potential impact of extreme events on energy systems has been difficult to quantify due to the unpredictability of future weather events. Here we develop a stochastic-robust optimization method to consider both low impact variations and extreme events. Applications of the method to 30 cities in Sweden, by considering 13 climate change scenarios, reveal that uncertainties in renewable energy potential and demand can lead to a significant performance gap (up to 34% for grid integration) brought by future climate variations and a drop in power supply reliability (up to 16%) due to extreme weather events. Appropriate quantification of the climate change impacts will ensure robust operation of the energy systems and enable renewable energy penetration above 30% for a majority of the cities.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1038/s41560-020-0558-0
Author(s)
Perera, A. T. D.  
Nik, Vahid M.
Chen, Deliang
Scartezzini, Jean-Louis  
Hong, Tianzhen
Date Issued

2020

Published in
Nature Energy
Volume

5

Start page

150

End page

159

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
LESO-PB  
Available on Infoscience
February 18, 2020
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/166300
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