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research article

Adaptive learning for disruption prediction in non-stationary conditions

Murari, A.
•
Lungaroni, M.
•
Gelfusa, M.
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August 1, 2019
Nuclear Fusion

For many years, machine learning tools have proved to be very powerful disruption predictors in tokamaks. On the other hand, the vast majority of the techniques deployed assume that the input data is independent and is sampled from exactly the same probability distribution for the training set, the test set and the final real time deployment. This hypothesis is certainly not verified in practice, since the experimental programmes evolve quite rapidly, resulting typically in ageing of the predictors and consequent suboptimal performance. This paper describes various adaptive training strategies that have been tested to maintain the performance of disruption predictors in non-stationary conditions. The proposed approaches have been implemented using new ensembles of classifiers, explicitly developed for the present application. The improvements in performance are unquestionable and, given the difficulties encountered so far in translating predictors from one device to another, the proposed adaptive methods from scratch can therefore be considered a useful option in the arsenal of alternatives envisaged for the next generation of devices, particularly at the very beginning of their operation.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1088/1741-4326/ab1ecc
Web of Science ID

WOS:000474298800006

Author(s)
Murari, A.
Lungaroni, M.
Gelfusa, M.
Peluso, E.
Vega, J.
Abduallev, S.
Abhangi, M.
Abreu, P.
Afanasev, V
Afzal, M.
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Date Issued

2019-08-01

Publisher

IOP Publishing Ltd

Published in
Nuclear Fusion
Volume

59

Issue

8

Article Number

086037

Subjects

Physics, Fluids & Plasmas

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Physics

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disruptions

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machine learning predictors

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adaptive training

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de-learning

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obsolescence

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ensembles of classifiers

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jet

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
SPC  
Available on Infoscience
November 6, 2019
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/162727
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