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research article

A nonparametric method for producing isolines of bivariate exceedance probabilities

Cooley, Daniel
•
Thibaud, Emeric  
•
Castillo, Federico
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September 1, 2019
Extremes

We present a method for drawing isolines indicating regions of equal joint exceedance probability for bivariate data. The method relies on bivariate regular variation, a dependence framework widely used for extremes. The method we utilize for characterizing dependence in the tail is largely nonparametric. The extremes framework enables drawing isolines corresponding to very low exceedance probabilities and may even lie beyond the range of the data; such cases would be problematic for standard nonparametric methods. Furthermore, we extend this method to the case of asymptotic independence and propose a procedure which smooths the transition from hidden regular variation in the interior to the first-order behavior on the axes. We propose a diagnostic plot for assessing the isoline estimate and choice of smoothing, and a bootstrap procedure to visually assess uncertainty.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1007/s10687-019-00348-0
Web of Science ID

WOS:000477066100001

Author(s)
Cooley, Daniel
•
Thibaud, Emeric  
•
Castillo, Federico
•
Wehner, Michael F.
Date Issued

2019-09-01

Publisher

SPRINGER

Published in
Extremes
Volume

22

Issue

3

Start page

373

End page

390

Subjects

Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications

•

Statistics & Probability

•

Mathematics

•

extreme values

•

multivariate

•

asymptotic independence

•

regular variation

•

hidden regular variation

•

tail

•

dependence

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
STAT  
Available on Infoscience
August 8, 2019
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/159636
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