Information-gap decision theory (IGDT): a new promising method for management of uncertainties in hydropower projects: case study

The design of hydropower is determined by estimates and long-term forecasts. These forecasts and estimates are highly uncertain and make performance evaluation and design choices challenging. Effective values deviating from the estimates can have a significant impact on the success of a hydropower project. Furthermore, if ongoing research should improve the accuracy of these long-term forecasts, such as climate change projections and electricity price forecasts, a high uncertainty will remain and finally lead to a demand for adequate design methods that incorporate these uncertainties into the planning process. Various design methods have been developed which allow for management of uncertainties. The Information-Gap Decision Theory (IGDT) was suggested as a potential approach to deal with climate change uncertainties. In this study, the IGDT was formulated and applied first time to a real hydropower project. Beside the identification of the values and limitations of IGDT specifically for hydropower sector, the study is intended to provide a basis for the application of the method in the engineering practice.


Published in:
Proceedings of HYDRO 2018, 1, 12.07
Presented at:
HYDRO 2018, Gdansk, Poland, October 15-17
Year:
2018
Publisher:
Hydropower&Dams, Aqua Media International
Note:
[1248]
Laboratories:


Note: The status of this file is: EPFL only


 Record created 2018-11-05, last modified 2019-08-12

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