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research article

A General Equilibrium Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Swiss Winter Tourism with Adaptation

Gonseth, Camille  
•
Vielle, Marc  
June 1, 2019
Environmental Modeling and Assessment

Winter alpine tourism has been repeatedly identified as one of the economic sectors most at risk from climate change in Switzerland. However, all of the costs that have been estimated so far for the Swiss tourism sector are, to some extent, misleading as they do not, or only partially, incorporate adaptation possibilities and general equilibrium effects. We attempt to fill this gap using a computable general equilibrium model that is specifically designed for the purposes of this research. Our modeling efforts first consist in creating a tourism sector with a part of it being dependent on snow. We also carefully model the snowmaking technology. Using climate change scenarios on future snow cover, we analyze their impacts on the Swiss ski industry. We find welfare effects for the Swiss economy ranging from − 23 to 113 million CHF in 2050. This range arises from the use of various assumptions concerning adaptation possibilities. We also show that geographical substitutions between international ski destinations have large positive effects for Switzerland. From a more general perspective, our results exemplify the risks of estimating the consequences of climate change based only on domestic impacts of climate change with no adaptation being implemented.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1007/s10666-018-9641-3
Web of Science ID

WOS:000474587200001

Author(s)
Gonseth, Camille  
Vielle, Marc  
Date Issued

2019-06-01

Publisher

SPRINGER

Published in
Environmental Modeling and Assessment
Volume

24

Start page

265

End page

277

Subjects

Climate change

•

Winter tourism

•

Adaptation

•

Computable general equilibrium

•

Switzerland

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
LEURE  
Available on Infoscience
January 16, 2018
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/144144
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