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  4. An Approximate Markov Model for the Wright-Fisher Diffusion and Its Application to Time Series Data
 
research article

An Approximate Markov Model for the Wright-Fisher Diffusion and Its Application to Time Series Data

Ferrer-Admetlla, Anna
•
Leuenberger, Christoph
•
Jensen, Jeffrey D.  
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2016
Genetics

The joint and accurate inference of selection and demography from genetic data is considered a particularly challenging question in population genetics, since both process may lead to very similar patterns of genetic diversity. However, additional information for disentangling these effects may be obtained by observing changes in allele frequencies over multiple time points. Such data are common in experimental evolution studies, as well as in the comparison of ancient and contemporary samples. Leveraging this information, however, has been computationally challenging, particularly when considering multilocus data sets. To overcome these issues, we introduce a novel, discrete approximation for diffusion processes, termed mean transition time approximation, which preserves the long-term behavior of the underlying continuous diffusion process. We then derive this approximation for the particular case of inferring selection and demography from time series data under the classic Wright-Fisher model and demonstrate that our approximation is well suited to describe allele trajectories through time, even when only a few states are used. We then develop a Bayesian inference approach to jointly infer the population size and locus-specific selection coefficients with high accuracy and further extend this model to also infer the rates of sequencing errors and mutations. We finally apply our approach to recent experimental data on the evolution of drug resistance in influenza virus, identifying likely targets of selection and finding evidence for much larger viral population sizes than previously reported.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1534/genetics.115.184598
Web of Science ID

WOS:000377462800020

Author(s)
Ferrer-Admetlla, Anna
•
Leuenberger, Christoph
•
Jensen, Jeffrey D.  
•
Wegmann, Daniel  
Date Issued

2016

Publisher

Genetics Society America

Published in
Genetics
Volume

203

Issue

2

Start page

831

End page

846

Subjects

Wright-Fisher model

•

diffusion approximation

•

discrete Markov model

•

hidden Markov model

•

time-series data

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
UPJENSEN  
Available on Infoscience
July 19, 2016
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/127634
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