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research article

On the predictive ability of mechanistic models for the Haitian cholera epidemic

Mari, Lorenzo  
•
Bertuzzo, Enrico  
•
Finger, Flavio  
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2015
Journal of the Royal Society, Interface

Predictive models of epidemic cholera need to resolve at suitable aggregation levels spatial data pertaining to local communities, epidemiological records, hydrologic drivers, waterways, patterns of human mobility and proxies of exposure rates. We address the above issue in a formal model comparison framework and provide a quantitative assessment of the explanatory and predictive abilities of various model settings with different spatial aggregation levels and coupling mechanisms. Reference is made to records of the recent Haiti cholera epidemics. Our intensive computations and objective model comparisons show that spatially explicit models accounting for spatial connections have better explanatory power than spatially disconnected ones for short-to-intermediate calibration windows, while parsimonious, spatially disconnected models perform better with long training sets. On average, spatially connected models show better predictive ability than disconnected ones. We suggest limits and validity of the various approaches and discuss the pathway towards the development of case-specific predictive tools in the context of emergency management.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1098/rsif.2014.0840
Web of Science ID

WOS:000351227000003

PubMed ID

25631563

Author(s)
Mari, Lorenzo  
Bertuzzo, Enrico  
Finger, Flavio  
Casagrandi, Renato
Gatto, Marino
Rinaldo, Andrea  
Date Issued

2015

Publisher

Royal Society, The

Published in
Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
Volume

12

Issue

104

Subjects

multilayer network model

•

spatially explicit model

•

ecohydrology

•

epidemic forecast

•

model calibration

•

model validation

Editorial or Peer reviewed

NON-REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
ECHO  
Available on Infoscience
February 2, 2015
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/110789
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