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  4. Modelling cholera epidemics: the role of waterways, human mobility and sanitation
 
research article

Modelling cholera epidemics: the role of waterways, human mobility and sanitation

Mari, L.  
•
Bertuzzo, E.  
•
Righetto, L.  
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2012
Journal Of The Royal Society Interface

We investigate the role of human mobility as a driver for long-range spreading of cholera infections, which primarily propagate through hydrologically controlled ecological corridors. Our aim is to build a spatially explicit model of a disease epidemic, which is relevant to both social and scientific issues. We present a two-layer network model that accounts for the interplay between epidemiological dynamics, hydrological transport and long-distance dissemination of the pathogen Vibrio cholerae owing to host movement, described here by means of a gravity-model approach. We test our model against epidemiological data recorded during the extensive cholera outbreak occurred in the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa during 2000-2001. We show that long-range human movement is fundamental in quantifying otherwise unexplained inter-catchment transport of V. cholerae, thus playing a key role in the formation of regional patterns of cholera epidemics. We also show quantitatively how heterogeneously distributed drinking water supplies and sanitation conditions may affect large-scale cholera transmission, and analyse the effects of different sanitation policies.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1098/rsif.2011.0304
Web of Science ID

WOS:000298380100016

Author(s)
Mari, L.  
Bertuzzo, E.  
Righetto, L.  
Casagrandi, R.
Gatto, M.
Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.
Rinaldo, A.  
Date Issued

2012

Published in
Journal Of The Royal Society Interface
Volume

9

Start page

376

End page

388

Subjects

susceptible-infected-recovered-like models

•

hydrological transport

•

gravity models

•

multi-layer networks

•

long-distance dispersal

•

Dynamics

•

Climate

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Spread

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Hyperinfectivity

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Strategies

•

Influenza

•

Systems

•

Measles

•

Rates

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
ECHO  
Available on Infoscience
January 26, 2012
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/77247
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