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  4. Estimating spillover benefits of large R&D projects: application of real options modelling approach to the case of thermonuclear fusion R&D programme
 
research article

Estimating spillover benefits of large R&D projects: application of real options modelling approach to the case of thermonuclear fusion R&D programme

Bednyagin, Denis
•
Gnansounou, Edgard  
2012
Energy Policy

This paper is focused on the analysis of spillover benefits of the ongoing R&D programme on thermonuclear fusion technology. The spillover effects are understood here as positive externalities of publicly funded R&D, demonstration and deployment (RDDD) activities that may be revealed at the companies' level in the form of newly created knowledge stock; development of innovative products/processes with broader market applications; strengthening of R&D, manufacturing and marketing capabilities; etc. An integrated compound real options model is proposed that allows to estimate the strategic net social present value of fusion RDDD programme taking into account the different types of spillover benefits along with the hidden real options value arising due to uncertainty and managerial flexibility. It was found that the value of spillover effects, modelled as "expansion option", could represent a significant proportion of the overall socio-economic value of fusion RDDD programme (nearly 20%). This paper clearly demonstrates that, besides a high-level mission to assure sustainable energy supply, fusion RDDD programme may yield substantial net socio-economic benefits that may be at least two times higher compared to the expected RD&D costs, and hence the pursuit of even more ambitious programme is economically justified. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  • Details
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Type
research article
DOI
10.1016/j.enpol.2011.10.046
Web of Science ID

WOS:000301155500028

Author(s)
Bednyagin, Denis
Gnansounou, Edgard  
Date Issued

2012

Publisher

Elsevier

Published in
Energy Policy
Volume

41

Start page

269

End page

279

Subjects

Thermonuclear fusion

•

Spillovers

•

Real options

•

Productivity Growth

•

Energy Research

•

Valuation

•

Market

•

Return

•

Power

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
GR-GN  
Available on Infoscience
January 18, 2012
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/76687
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