Effect of uncertainties on the real-time operation of a lowland water system in The Netherlands

Due to the limited pumping capacity in lowland water systems, reduction of system failure requires anticipation of extreme precipitation events. This can be done by Model Predictive Control that optimizes an objective function over a certain time horizon, for which the system behaviour is calculated by a model and a prediction of the inputs to the system. The forecast inputs usually contain large uncertainties. Because the pump constraints make the optimization problem non-certainty equivalent, uncertainties need to be considered to adequately control the water system. In this paper, the way uncertainties influence the control decision is investigated. An information-control horizon and an information-prediction horizon are introduced as time-limits for the sensitivity to future input information and the value of predictions. These horizons need to be considered in the design of a controller. Multiple Model Predictive Control is suggested to deal with the uncertainties in a risk based way.


Editor(s):
Boegh, Eva
Kunstmann, Harald
Wagener, Thorsten
Hall, Alan
Bastidas, Luis
Franks, Stewart
Gupta, Hoshin
Rosbjerg, Dan
Schaake, John
Published in:
Quantification and Reduction of Predictive Uncertainty for Sustainable Water Resources Management, 463-470
Presented at:
IUGG2007, the XXIV General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, Perugia, Italy, July 2007
Year:
2007
Publisher:
IAHS
ISBN:
978-1-901502-09-1
Keywords:
Laboratories:




 Record created 2011-07-04, last modified 2018-03-17

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