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research article

A bottom-up stochastic model to predict building occupants' time-dependent activities

Wilke, Urs  
•
Haldi, Frederic  
•
Scartezzini, Jean-Louis  
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2013
Building and Environment

A bottom-up modelling approach together with a set of calibration methodologies is presented to predict residential building occupants' time-dependent activities, for use in dynamic building simulations. The stochastic model to predict activity chains is calibrated using French time-use survey data (of 1998/1999), based on three types of time-dependent quantities: (i) the probability to be at home, (ii) the conditional probability to start an activity whilst being at home, and (iii) the probability distribution function for the duration of that activity. The behaviour of the individual agents in the model is first calibrated using a generic approach, where every individual is assumed to behave the same. A refinement is then presented to account for variations in the behaviours of sub-populations, having specific individual characteristics. Furthermore, a statistical approach is introduced for the modelling of transitions between two successive activity types as a Markov process. The models are then validated using a cross-validation technique, and their predictive performance is compared at an individual level, as well as for aggregated (sub-)populations. (c) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  • Details
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Type
research article
DOI
10.1016/j.buildenv.2012.10.021
Web of Science ID

WOS:000314734800024

Author(s)
Wilke, Urs  
Haldi, Frederic  
Scartezzini, Jean-Louis  
Robinson, Darren  
Date Issued

2013

Publisher

Elsevier

Published in
Building and Environment
Volume

60

Start page

254

End page

264

Subjects

Stochastic

•

Simulation

•

Time-use survey

•

Residential

•

Activity

•

Multinomial logit

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
LESO-PB  
Available on Infoscience
March 28, 2013
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/90807
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