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research article

Maximizing the net present value of a project under uncertainty

Wiesemann, Wolfram
•
Kuhn, Daniel  
•
Rustem, Berç
2010
European Journal of Operational Research

We address the maximization of a project’s expected net present value when the activity durations and cash flows are described by a discrete set of alternative scenarios with associated occurrence probabilities. In this setting, the choice of scenario-independent activity start times frequently leads to infeasible schedules or severe losses in revenues. We suggest to determine an optimal target processing time policy for the project activities instead. Such a policy prescribes an activity to be started as early as possible in the realized scenario, but never before its (scenario-independent) target processing time. We formulate the resulting model as a global optimization problem and present a branch-and-bound algorithm for its solution. Extensive numerical results illustrate the suitability of the proposed policy class and the runtime behavior of the algorithm.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1016/j.ejor.2009.05.045
Author(s)
Wiesemann, Wolfram
Kuhn, Daniel  
Rustem, Berç
Date Issued

2010

Publisher

Elsevier

Published in
European Journal of Operational Research
Volume

202

Issue

2

Start page

356

End page

367

Subjects

Project scheduling

•

Net present value

•

Optimization under uncertainty

Editorial or Peer reviewed

NON-REVIEWED

Written at

OTHER

EPFL units
RAO  
Available on Infoscience
January 21, 2014
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/100068
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