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research article

Human mortality at extreme age

Belzile, Leo R.  
•
Davison, Anthony C.  
•
Rootzen, Holger
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September 29, 2021
Royal Society Open Science

We use a combination of extreme value statistics, survival analysis and computer-intensive methods to analyse the mortality of Italian and French semi-supercentenarians. After accounting for the effects of the sampling frame, extreme-value modelling leads to the conclusion that constant force of mortality beyond 108 years describes the data well and there is no evidence of differences between countries and cohorts. These findings are consistent with use of a Gompertz model and with previous analysis of the International Database on Longevity and suggest that any physical upper bound for the human lifespan is so large that it is unlikely to be approached. Power calculations make it implausible that there is an upper bound below 130 years. There is no evidence of differences in survival between women and men after age 108 in the Italian data and the International Database on Longevity, but survival is lower for men in the French data.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1098/rsos.202097
Web of Science ID

WOS:000700825400001

Author(s)
Belzile, Leo R.  
Davison, Anthony C.  
Rootzen, Holger
Zholud, Dmitrii
Date Issued

2021-09-29

Publisher

ROYAL SOC

Published in
Royal Society Open Science
Volume

8

Issue

9

Article Number

202097

Subjects

Multidisciplinary Sciences

•

Science & Technology - Other Topics

•

exponential hazard

•

extreme value theory

•

semi-supercentenarian

•

human life

•

demography

•

paper

•

limit

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
STAT  
Available on Infoscience
October 9, 2021
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/181970
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