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research article

Bayesian uncertainty management in temporal dependence of extremes

Lugrin, T.  
•
Davison, A. C.  
•
Tawn, J. A.
2016
Extremes

Both marginal and dependence features must be described when modelling the extremes of a stationary time series. There are standard approaches to marginal modelling, but long-and short-range dependence of extremes may both appear. In applications, an assumption of long-range independence often seems reasonable, but short-range dependence, i.e., the clustering of extremes, needs attention. The extremal index 0 < theta <= 1 is a natural limitingmeasure of clustering, but for wide classes of dependent processes, including all stationary Gaussian processes, it cannot distinguish dependent processes from independent processes with theta = 1. Eastoe and Tawn (Biometrika 99, 43-55 2012) exploit methods from multivariate extremes to treat the subasymptotic extremal dependence structure of stationary time series, covering both 0 < theta < 1 and theta = 1, through the introduction of a threshold-based extremal index. Inference for their dependence models uses an inefficient stepwise procedure that has various weaknesses and has no reliable assessment of uncertainty. We overcome these issues using a Bayesian semiparametric approach. Simulations and the analysis of a UK daily river flow time series show that the new approach provides improved efficiency for estimating properties of functionals of clusters.

  • Details
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Type
research article
DOI
10.1007/s10687-016-0258-0
Web of Science ID

WOS:000386531000007

Author(s)
Lugrin, T.  
Davison, A. C.  
Tawn, J. A.
Date Issued

2016

Publisher

Springer Verlag

Published in
Extremes
Volume

19

Issue

3

Start page

491

End page

515

Subjects

Asymptotic independence

•

Bayesian semiparametrics

•

Conditional extremes

•

Dirichlet process

•

Extreme value theory

•

Extremogram

•

Risk analysis

•

Threshold-based extremal index

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
STAT  
Available on Infoscience
January 24, 2017
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/133816
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