Repository logo

Infoscience

  • English
  • French
Log In
Logo EPFL, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne

Infoscience

  • English
  • French
Log In
  1. Home
  2. Academic and Research Output
  3. Journal articles
  4. Practical issues with modeling extreme Brazilian rainfall
 
research article

Practical issues with modeling extreme Brazilian rainfall

Pereira, Paulo V. C.
•
Previdelli, Isolde T. S.
•
Davison, Anthony C.  
February 1, 2021
Brazilian Journal Of Probability And Statistics

Accurately quantifying extreme rainfall is important for the design of hydraulic structures, for flood mapping and zoning and for disaster management. In order to produce maps of estimates of 25-year rainfall return levels in Brazil, we selected 893 shorter and 104 longer rainfall time series from the Agencia Nacional de Aguas (ANA), and applied the framework of extreme value theory. Care was needed to reduce the impact of poor data. Estimates of the shape parameter of the extreme-value model fitted to rainfall data are typically biased, so we discuss an empirical correction that takes into account not only the sample-size bias, but also a so-called penultimate approximation that we use to inform a Bayesian spatial latent variable model for the annual rainfall maxima. This model accounts for subtle patterns of spatial variation in the data and provides plausible return level estimates.

  • Details
  • Metrics
Type
research article
DOI
10.1214/20-BJPS495
Web of Science ID

WOS:000616450900003

Author(s)
Pereira, Paulo V. C.
Previdelli, Isolde T. S.
Davison, Anthony C.  
Date Issued

2021-02-01

Publisher

BRAZILIAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION

Published in
Brazilian Journal Of Probability And Statistics
Volume

35

Issue

1

Start page

21

End page

36

Subjects

Statistics & Probability

•

Mathematics

•

bayesian hierarchical model

•

data quality

•

penultimate approximation

•

return level map

•

small-sample bias

•

statistics of extremes

•

statistics

•

inference

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
STAT  
Available on Infoscience
March 26, 2021
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/176359
Logo EPFL, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne
  • Contact
  • infoscience@epfl.ch

  • Follow us on Facebook
  • Follow us on Instagram
  • Follow us on LinkedIn
  • Follow us on X
  • Follow us on Youtube
AccessibilityLegal noticePrivacy policyCookie settingsEnd User AgreementGet helpFeedback

Infoscience is a service managed and provided by the Library and IT Services of EPFL. © EPFL, tous droits réservés