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research article

Stochastic dynamics of cholera epidemics

Azaele, Sandro
•
Maritan, Amos
•
Bertuzzo, Enrico  
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2010
Physical Review E

We describe the predictions of an analytically tractable stochastic model for cholera epidemics following a single initial outbreak. The exact model relies on a set of assumptions that may restrict the generality of the approach and yet provides a realm of powerful tools and results. Without resorting to the depletion of susceptible individuals, as usually assumed in deterministic susceptible-infected-recovered models, we show that a simple stochastic equation for the number of ill individuals provides a mechanism for the decay of the epidemics occurring on the typical time scale of seasonality. The model is shown to provide a reasonably accurate description of the empirical data of the 2000/2001 cholera epidemic which took place in the Kwa Zulu-Natal Province, South Africa, with possibly notable epidemiological implications.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1103/PhysRevE.81.051901
Web of Science ID

WOS:000278148400087

Author(s)
Azaele, Sandro
Maritan, Amos
Bertuzzo, Enrico  
Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio
Rinaldo, Andrea  
Date Issued

2010

Publisher

American Physical Society

Published in
Physical Review E
Volume

81

Issue

5

Article Number

051901

Subjects

Infectious-Disease

•

Global Climate

•

Endemic Period

•

Outbreaks

•

Duration

•

Models

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
ECHO  
Available on Infoscience
January 28, 2011
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/63500
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