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research article

Home Price Expectations and Behaviour: Evidence from a Randomized Information Experiment

Armona, Luis
•
Fuster, Andreas  
•
Zafar, Basit
July 1, 2019
The Review of Economic Studies

Home price expectations are believed to play an important role in housing dynamics, yet we have limited understanding of how they are formed and how they affect behaviour. Using a unique “information experiment” embedded in an online survey, this article investigates how consumers’ home price expectations respond to past home price growth, and how they impact investment decisions. After eliciting respondents’ priors about past and future local home price changes, we present a random subset of them with factual information about past (one- or five-year) changes, and then re-elicit expectations. This unique “panel” data allows us to identify causal effects of the information, and provides insights on the expectation formation process. We find that, on average, year-ahead home price expectations are revised in a way consistent with short-term momentum in home price growth, though respondents tend to underpredict the strength of momentum. Revisions of longer-term expectations show that respondents do not expect the empirically-occurring mean reversion in home price growth. These patterns are in line with recent behavioural models of housing cycles. Finally, we show that home price expectations causally affect investment decisions in a portfolio choice experiment embedded in the survey.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1093/restud/rdy038
Author(s)
Armona, Luis
Fuster, Andreas  
Zafar, Basit
Date Issued

2019-07-01

Published in
The Review of Economic Studies
Volume

86

Issue

4

Start page

1371

End page

1410

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

OTHER

EPFL units
SFI-AF  
Available on Infoscience
December 7, 2021
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/183724
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