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research article

A physics-based and data-aided transient prediction framework for sustainable operation of pumped-storage hydropower systems

Ma, Weichao
•
Zhao, Zhigao
•
Liu, Chengpeng
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April 15, 2025
Applied Energy

Achieving accurate predictions of transient processes for pumped-storage hydropower stations (PSHSs) remains a key challenge due to uncertainties in on-site parameters, particularly the pump-turbine characteristic curves (PTCCs), and limitations of the physics-based models themselves. To address this issue, this study proposes a transient prediction framework for PSHSs, centered on on-site measurements and incorporating both the physics-based model calibration and the data-aided correction. A method for reconstructing PTCCs using point distribution models (PDMs) is proposed, where PDMs act as prior models and are innovatively developed by defining multiple feature points on PTCCs to accommodate potential non-rigid deformations. This approach allows the reconstruction of complete PTCCs using a surface reconstruction algorithm, requiring only limited measured data from steady-state and transient experiments. To further compensate for errors in the physics-based model, a data-aided correction using nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX) is proposed. The NARX model is optimally tuned by selecting the most sensitive model inputs which have the highest correlations with the predicted error of the physics-based model. Compared with the conventional model, the proposed framework reduces the predicted tendency errors for discharge, pressure at the volute, pressure at the draft tube, and rotational speed by average values of 10.82 %, 13.88 %, 36.67 %, and 7.37 %, respectively, across all experimental cases. The proposed transient prediction framework enables highly accurate predictions for a diverse range of transient processes of PSHSs and serves as a pre-warning basis for real-time monitoring systems, facilitating the sustainable operation of PSHSs.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.125470
Scopus ID

2-s2.0-85217006543

Author(s)
Ma, Weichao

Wuhan University

Zhao, Zhigao

Wuhan University

Liu, Chengpeng

Wuhan University

Chen, Fei

Wuhan University

Yang, Weijia

Wuhan University

Zeng, Wei

The University of Adelaide

Vagnoni, Elena  

École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne

Yang, Jiandong

Wuhan University

Date Issued

2025-04-15

Published in
Applied Energy
Volume

384

Article Number

125470

Subjects

Data-driven

•

Model calibration

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Model experiment

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Pump-turbine

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Pumped-storage hydropower

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Transient process

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
PTMH-GE  
Available on Infoscience
February 14, 2025
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/246927
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