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  4. AN EXACT BANDIT MODEL FOR THE RISK-VOLATILITY TRADEOFF
 
research article

AN EXACT BANDIT MODEL FOR THE RISK-VOLATILITY TRADEOFF

Hongler, Max-Olivier  
•
Rivier, Renaud
April 24, 2024
Journal Of Dynamics And Games

. We revisit the two-armed bandit (TAB) problem where both arms are driven by diffusive stochastic processes with a common instantaneous reward. We focus on situations where the Radon-Nikodym derivative between the transition probability densities of the first arm with respect to the second is explicitly known. We calculate how the corresponding Gittins' indices behave under such a change of probability measure. This general framework is used to solve the optimal allocation of a TAB problem where the first arm is driven by a pure Brownian motion and the second is driven by a centered super-diffusive nonGaussian process with variance quadratically growing in time. The probability spread due to the super-diffusion introduces an extra risk into the allocation problem. This drastically affects the optimal decision rule. Our modeling illustrates the interplay between the notions of risk and volatility.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.3934/jdg.2024011
Web of Science ID

WOS:001216199000001

Author(s)
Hongler, Max-Olivier  
Rivier, Renaud
Date Issued

2024-04-24

Publisher

Springfield

Published in
Journal Of Dynamics And Games
Subjects

Physical Sciences

•

Sequential Stochastic Optimization

•

Continuous Time Multi-Armed Bandits

•

Diffusion Processes

•

Non-Gaussian Evolutions

•

Mean Preserving Spread.

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
LOB  
Available on Infoscience
May 16, 2024
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/208001
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