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  4. Macroeconomic Conditioned Synthetic Financial Markets
 
conference paper

Macroeconomic Conditioned Synthetic Financial Markets

Rusnak, Alexander Michael  
•
Daul, Stéphane
November 14, 2024
ICAIF '24: Proceedings of the 5th ACM International Conference on AI in Finance
5th ACM International Conference on Artificial Intelligence in Finance

The creation of high fidelity synthetic data has long been an important goal in machine learning, particularly in fields like finance where the scarcity of available training and test data make it difficult to utilize many of the deep learning techniques which have proven so powerful in other domains. Despite ample research into different types of synthetic generation techniques, which in recent years have largely focused on generative adversarial networks, there remain key holes in many of the architectures and techniques being utilized. In particular, there are currently no techniques available which can generate multiple financial time series of returns concurrently while capturing the specific statistical properties of financial time series and which incorporate extra information that influences the series, such as macroeconomic factors. We propose the Market Conditional Transformer-Encoder Generative Adversarial Network (MC-TE-GAN), a novel generative adversarial neural network architecture that satisfies the aforementioned challenges. When trained on daily data and compared with the benchmark CoMeTS-GAN model, MC-TE-GAN is able to more accurately capture the relevant univariate statistical properties of financial returns such as linear unpredictability and heteroskedasticity. It is also able to capture the multivariate correlations between concurrently generated series. Furthermore, we demonstrate that when incorporating macroeconomic data as conditioning information MC-TE-GAN works as a compelling historical scenario simulator which is able to create realistic synthetic market crashes or bull runs, even in unseen data.

  • Details
  • Metrics
Type
conference paper
DOI
10.1145/3677052.3698606
Author(s)
Rusnak, Alexander Michael  

EPFL

Daul, Stéphane
Date Issued

2024-11-14

Publisher

ACM

Publisher place

New York

Published in
ICAIF '24: Proceedings of the 5th ACM International Conference on AI in Finance
ISBN of the book

979-8-4007-1081-0

Total of pages

885

Start page

150

End page

158

Subjects

Deep Learning

•

Generative Adversarial Network

•

Financial Engineering

•

Finance

•

Digital Humanities

•

Generative Modeling

•

Synthetic Data

•

Time Series Modeling

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
DHLAB  
Event nameEvent acronymEvent placeEvent date
5th ACM International Conference on Artificial Intelligence in Finance

ICAIF'2024

Brookyln, New York, USA

2024-11-14 - 2024-11-27

Available on Infoscience
January 13, 2025
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/242718
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