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research article

Climate-driven endemic cholera is modulated by human mobility in a megacity

Perez-Saez, Javier  
•
King, Aaron A.
•
Rinaldo, Andrea  
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2016
Advances in Water Resources

Although a differential sensitivity of cholera dynamics to climate variability has been reported in the spatially heterogeneous megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh, the specific patterns of spread of the resulting risk within the city remain unclear. We build on an established probabilistic spatial model to investigate the importance and role of human mobility in modulating spatial cholera transmission. Mobility fluxes were inferred using a straightforward and generalizable methodology that relies on mapping population density based on a high resolution urban footprint product, and a parameter-free human mobility model. In accordance with previous findings, we highlight the higher sensitivity to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the highly populated urban center than in the more rural periphery. More significantly, our results show that cholera risk is largely transmitted from the climate-sensitive core to the periphery of the city, with implications for the planning of control efforts. In addition, including human mobility improves the outbreak prediction performance of the model with an 11 month lead. The interplay between climatic and human mobility factors in cholera transmission is discussed from the perspective of the rapid growth of megacities across the developing world. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1016/j.advwatres.2016.11.013
Web of Science ID

WOS:000411868400028

Author(s)
Perez-Saez, Javier  
King, Aaron A.
Rinaldo, Andrea  
Yunus, Mohammad
Faruque, Abu S.G.
Pascual, Mercedes
Date Issued

2016

Publisher

Elsevier

Published in
Advances in Water Resources
Volume

108

Start page

367

End page

376

Subjects

Human mobility

•

Endemic cholera

•

El Nino

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
ECHO  
Available on Infoscience
January 3, 2017
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/132388
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