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  4. Do Not Trust a Model Because It is Confident: Uncovering and Characterizing Unknown Unknowns to Student Success Predictors in Online-Based Learning
 
conference paper

Do Not Trust a Model Because It is Confident: Uncovering and Characterizing Unknown Unknowns to Student Success Predictors in Online-Based Learning

Galici, Roberta
•
Fenu, Gianni
•
Kaser, Tanja  
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Hilliger, Isabel
•
Khosravi, Hassan
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January 1, 2022
LAK2023: LAK23: 13th International Learning Analytics and Knowledge Conference
13th International Conference on Learning Analytics and Knowledge

Student success models might be prone to develop weak spots, i.e., examples hard to accurately classify due to insufficient representation during model creation. This weakness is one of the main factors undermining users' trust, since model predictions could for instance lead an instructor to not intervene on a student in need. In this paper, we unveil the need of detecting and characterizing unknown unknowns in student success prediction in order to better understand when models may fail. Unknown unknowns include the students for which the model is highly confident in its predictions, but is actually wrong. Therefore, we cannot solely rely on the model's confidence when evaluating the predictions quality. We first introduce a framework for the identification and characterization of unknown unknowns. We then assess its informativeness on log data collected from flipped courses and online courses using quantitative analyses and interviews with instructors. Our results show that unknown unknowns are a critical issue in this domain and that our framework can be applied to support their detection. The source code is available at https://github.com/epflml4ed/unknown-unknowns.

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Type
conference paper
DOI
10.1145/3576050.3576148
Web of Science ID

WOS:001440913000042

Author(s)
Galici, Roberta

University of Cagliari

Fenu, Gianni

University of Cagliari

Kaser, Tanja  

École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne

Marras, Mirko

University of Cagliari

Editors
Hilliger, Isabel
•
Khosravi, Hassan
•
Rienties, Bart
•
Dawson, Shane
Date Issued

2022-01-01

Publisher

Association for Computing Machinery

Publisher place

New York, NY, United States

Published in
LAK2023: LAK23: 13th International Learning Analytics and Knowledge Conference
DOI of the book
10.1145/3576050
ISBN of the book

978-1-4503-9865-7

Start page

441

End page

452

Subjects

Trust

•

Fairness

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Uncertainty

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Machine Learning

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Student Success

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Unknown Unknowns

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
ML4ED  
Event nameEvent acronymEvent placeEvent date
13th International Conference on Learning Analytics and Knowledge

Arlington, TX

2023-03-13 - 2023-03-17

FunderFunding(s)Grant NumberGrant URL

Swiss State Secretariat for Education, Research and Innovation SERI

University of Cagliari

Available on Infoscience
April 8, 2025
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/248935
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