Repository logo

Infoscience

  • English
  • French
Log In
Logo EPFL, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne

Infoscience

  • English
  • French
Log In
  1. Home
  2. Academic and Research Output
  3. Journal articles
  4. Opinion formation dynamics - Swift collective disillusionment triggered by unmet expectations
 
research article

Opinion formation dynamics - Swift collective disillusionment triggered by unmet expectations

Hashemi, Fariba
•
Gallay, Olivier
•
Hongler, Max-Olivier  
May 1, 2021
Physica A-Statistical Mechanics And Its Applications

We propose a microscopic model to describe how individual opinions shared between interacting agents initiate excessive collective expectations about a new idea or an innovation, followed by a swift collapse towards a dramatic collective disillusionment. The basic assumption which underlies the dynamics is that the information gathering process is not instantaneous but requires maturation. Agents steadily refine and update their personal opinion via a recurrent consultation of a public pool which stores information tokens (ITs). The expectation for the innovative idea is monitored in real-time by counting the number of stored ITs. The flow dynamics of ITs is assimilated to a single node queuing system (QS) with feedback loop. It incorporates the information pool (the waiting room), an IT inflow, and a service outflow that stylizes the information gathering process. Contrary to basic queuing theory, here the ITs roaming the QS are endowed with time-dependent internal variables. This additional dynamic information is used to construct the information maturation process. Such a maturation of the information introduces response delays into the dynamics, which ultimately generates the collective disillusionment trough. We illustrate the introduced generic modeling framework by considering in details the hype cycle dynamics, a key managerial topic when dealing with diffusion of innovation. In a second part of the paper, we introduce a stylized framework to detect, as soon as possible, the onset of the collective disillusionment phase, while minimizing the frequency of false alarms. (C) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  • Details
  • Metrics
Type
research article
DOI
10.1016/j.physa.2021.125797
Web of Science ID

WOS:000632551300027

Author(s)
Hashemi, Fariba
Gallay, Olivier
Hongler, Max-Olivier  
Date Issued

2021-05-01

Published in
Physica A-Statistical Mechanics And Its Applications
Volume

569

Article Number

125797

Subjects

Physics, Multidisciplinary

•

Physics

•

innovation diffusion

•

collective dynamics

•

queuing systems

•

hype cycle

•

wiener disorder problem

•

optimal detection

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
LOB  
Available on Infoscience
April 24, 2021
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/177590
Logo EPFL, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne
  • Contact
  • infoscience@epfl.ch

  • Follow us on Facebook
  • Follow us on Instagram
  • Follow us on LinkedIn
  • Follow us on X
  • Follow us on Youtube
AccessibilityLegal noticePrivacy policyCookie settingsEnd User AgreementGet helpFeedback

Infoscience is a service managed and provided by the Library and IT Services of EPFL. © EPFL, tous droits réservés