Repository logo

Infoscience

  • English
  • French
Log In
Logo EPFL, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne

Infoscience

  • English
  • French
Log In
  1. Home
  2. Academic and Research Output
  3. Journal articles
  4. Tail Risk Inference via Expectiles in Heavy-Tailed Time Series
 
research article

Tail Risk Inference via Expectiles in Heavy-Tailed Time Series

Davison, Anthony C.  
•
Padoan, Simone A.
•
Stupfler, Gilles
July 2, 2022
Journal Of Business & Economic Statistics

Expectiles define the only law-invariant, coherent and elicitable risk measure apart from the expectation. The popularity of expectile-based risk measures is steadily growing and their properties have been studied for independent data, but further results are needed to establish that extreme expectiles can be applied with the kind of dependent time series models relevant to finance. In this article we provide a basis for inference on extreme expectiles and expectile-based marginal expected shortfall in a general beta-mixing context that encompasses ARMA and GARCH models with heavy-tailed innovations. Our methods allow the estimation of marginal (pertaining to the stationary distribution) and dynamic (conditional on the past) extreme expectile-based risk measures. Simulations and applications to financial returns show that the new estimators and confidence intervals greatly improve on existing ones when the data are dependent.

  • Details
  • Metrics
Type
research article
DOI
10.1080/07350015.2022.2078332
Web of Science ID

WOS:000821029200001

Author(s)
Davison, Anthony C.  
Padoan, Simone A.
Stupfler, Gilles
Date Issued

2022-07-02

Publisher

TAYLOR & FRANCIS INC

Published in
Journal Of Business & Economic Statistics
Subjects

Economics

•

Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods

•

Statistics & Probability

•

Business & Economics

•

Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences

•

Mathematics

•

asymmetric least squares estimation

•

marginal expected shortfall

•

mixing

•

tail copula

•

weak dependence

•

extreme quantile estimation

•

statistics

•

shortfall

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
STAT  
Available on Infoscience
July 18, 2022
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/189342
Logo EPFL, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne
  • Contact
  • infoscience@epfl.ch

  • Follow us on Facebook
  • Follow us on Instagram
  • Follow us on LinkedIn
  • Follow us on X
  • Follow us on Youtube
AccessibilityLegal noticePrivacy policyCookie settingsEnd User AgreementGet helpFeedback

Infoscience is a service managed and provided by the Library and IT Services of EPFL. © EPFL, tous droits réservés