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  4. Solar Forecasting with Causality: A Graph-Transformer Approach to Spatiotemporal Dependencies
 
conference paper

Solar Forecasting with Causality: A Graph-Transformer Approach to Spatiotemporal Dependencies

Niu, Yanan  
•
Psaltis, Demetri  
•
Moser, Christophe  
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November 10, 2025
Proceedings of the 34th ACM International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management
CIKM '25: The 34th ACM International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management

Accurate solar forecasting underpins effective renewable energy management. We present SolarCAST, a causally informed model predicting future global horizontal irradiance (GHI) at a target site using only historical GHI from site X and nearby stations S---unlike prior work that relies on sky-camera or satellite imagery requiring specialized hardware and heavy preprocessing. To deliver high accuracy with only public sensor data, SolarCAST models three classes of confounding factors behind X-S correlations using scalable neural components: (i) observable synchronous variables (e.g., time of day, station identity), handled via an embedding module; (ii) latent synchronous factors (e.g., regional weather patterns), captured by a spatio-temporal graph neural network; and (iii) time-lagged influences (e.g., cloud movement across stations), modeled with a gated transformer that learns temporal shifts. It outperforms leading time-series and multimodal baselines across diverse geographical conditions, and achieves a 25.9% error reduction over the top commercial forecaster, Solcast. SolarCAST offers a lightweight, practical, and generalizable solution for localized solar forecasting. Code available at https://github.com/YananNiu/SolarCAST

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Type
conference paper
DOI
10.1145/3746252.3760905
Author(s)
Niu, Yanan  

EPFL

Psaltis, Demetri  

EPFL

Moser, Christophe  

EPFL

Lambertini, Luisa  

EPFL

Date Issued

2025-11-10

Publisher

ACM

Publisher place

New York, NY, USA

Published in
Proceedings of the 34th ACM International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management
ISBN of the book

979-8-4007-2040-6

Start page

5058

End page

5062

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
SFI-LL  
LHTC  
LAPD  
Event nameEvent acronymEvent placeEvent date
CIKM '25: The 34th ACM International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management

CIKM '25

Seoul, Republic of Korea

2025-11-10 - 2025-11-14

FunderFunding(s)Grant NumberGrant URL

École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne

Solutions for Sustainability Initiative (S4S)

Available on Infoscience
November 12, 2025
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/255786
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