Repository logo

Infoscience

  • English
  • French
Log In
Logo EPFL, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne

Infoscience

  • English
  • French
Log In
  1. Home
  2. Academic and Research Output
  3. Journal articles
  4. Likelihood Estimation for the INAR(p) Model by Saddlepoint Approximation
 
research article

Likelihood Estimation for the INAR(p) Model by Saddlepoint Approximation

Pedeli, Xanthi
•
Davison, Anthony C.  
•
Fokianos, Konstantinos
2015
Journal Of The American Statistical Association

Saddlepoint techniques have been used successfully in many applications, owing to the high accuracy with which they can approximate intractable densities and tail probabilities. This article concerns their use for the estimation of high-order integer-valued autoregressive, INAR(p), processes. Conditional least squares estimation and maximum likelihood estimation have been proposed for INAR(p) models, but the first is inefficient for estimating parametric models, and the second becomes difficult to implement as the order p increases. We propose a simple saddlepoint approximation to the log-likelihood that performs well even in the tails of the distribution and with complicated INAR models. We consider Poisson and negative binomial innovations, and show empirically that the estimator that maximises the saddlepoint approximation behaves very similarly to the maximum likelihood estimator in realistic settings. The approach is applied to data on meningococcal disease counts. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

  • Details
  • Metrics
Type
research article
DOI
10.1080/01621459.2014.983230
Web of Science ID

WOS:000365144600030

Author(s)
Pedeli, Xanthi
Davison, Anthony C.  
Fokianos, Konstantinos
Date Issued

2015

Publisher

American Statistical Association

Published in
Journal Of The American Statistical Association
Volume

110

Issue

511

Start page

1229

End page

1238

Subjects

INAR(p) model

•

Maximum likelihood estimation

•

Meningococcal disease

•

Negative binomial distribution

•

Poisson distribution

•

Saddlepoint approximation

•

Time series

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
STAT  
Available on Infoscience
February 16, 2016
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/123553
Logo EPFL, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne
  • Contact
  • infoscience@epfl.ch

  • Follow us on Facebook
  • Follow us on Instagram
  • Follow us on LinkedIn
  • Follow us on X
  • Follow us on Youtube
AccessibilityLegal noticePrivacy policyCookie settingsEnd User AgreementGet helpFeedback

Infoscience is a service managed and provided by the Library and IT Services of EPFL. © EPFL, tous droits réservés