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  4. Potential for subseasonal early warning systems for two heatwave-affected sectors of Switzerland: health and alpine permafrost
 
conference presentation

Potential for subseasonal early warning systems for two heatwave-affected sectors of Switzerland: health and alpine permafrost

Büeler, Dominik
•
Pyrina, Maria
•
Sharaborova, Elizaveta  
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August 16, 2024
Annual Meeting European Meteorological Society (EMS 2024)

The projected increase in heatwave intensity and frequency will have far-reaching consequences for the human and natural environment of Switzerland. Two particularly important consequences are heat-related excess mortality in the low-lying areas and heat-related acceleration of climate-change-induced alpine permafrost thawing in high-elevation areas. The latter will potentially have far-reaching impacts on alpine hazards, ecosystems, infrastructure, and tourism. In this interdisciplinary project, we assess the potential of using subseasonal heatwave predictions as a basis for early warning systems for the above-mentioned sectors in Switzerland. For the health sector, we show that the (observation-based) statistical relationship between temperature and mortality in combination with downscaled subseasonal temperature forecasts can be used to predict mortality attributable to heat. We demonstrate that for two densely populated areas of Switzerland (Cantons of Zurich and Geneva) and two past hot summers (2018 and 2022) this system is able to predict individual heat-related mortality peaks up to two weeks ahead and anticipate longer-lasting periods of heat-related excess mortality up to four weeks in advance. For the alpine sector, we show that individual summer heatwaves can play an important role in accelerating permafrost thawing, even though the process is driven by long-term climate change. We demonstrate this with idealized sensitivity experiments with the SNOWPACK model (a physical model that predicts the evolution of the snowpack and the ground temperature below). They indicate that both the duration of heatwaves as well as their timing within an individual summer are important for the intensity of the ground warming in permafrost regions. In summary, this project demonstrates a large potential for using subseasonal heatwave predictions for early warning systems for the health sector. For the alpine sector, it highlights the potential importance of individual heatwaves for permafrost thawing and raises the question if subseasonal heatwave predictions could support monitoring and early warning systems in high-elevation areas in some way.

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Type
conference presentation
DOI
10.5194/ems2024-661
Author(s)
Büeler, Dominik

Institute for Biomedical Engineering

Pyrina, Maria

ETH Zurich

Sharaborova, Elizaveta  

EPFL

Sivaraj, Sidharth

University of Bern

Vicedo‐Cabrera, Ana M.

University of Bern

Imamovic, Adel

Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss

Spirig, Christoph

Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss

Lehning, Michael  

EPFL

Domeisen, Daniela I. V.

University of Lausanne

Date Issued

2024-08-16

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
CRYOS  
Event nameEvent acronymEvent placeEvent date
Annual Meeting European Meteorological Society (EMS 2024)

Barcelona & online

2024-09-02 - 2024-09-06

Available on Infoscience
January 14, 2026
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/258007
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