Repository logo

Infoscience

  • English
  • French
Log In
Logo EPFL, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne

Infoscience

  • English
  • French
Log In
  1. Home
  2. Academic and Research Output
  3. Journal articles
  4. What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting
 
research article

What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting

Beshears, John
•
Choi, James J.
•
Fuster, Andreas  
Show more
2013
American Economic Review

Do laboratory subjects correctly perceive the dynamics of a mean-reverting time series? In our experiment, subjects receive historical data and make forecasts at different horizons. The time series process that we use features short-run momentum and long-run partial mean reversion. Half of the subjects see a version of this process in which the momentum and partial mean reversion unfold over ten periods ("fast"), while the other subjects see a version with dynamics that unfold over 50 periods ("slow"). Typical subjects recognize most of the mean reversion of the fast process and none of the mean reversion of the slow process.

  • Details
  • Metrics
Type
research article
DOI
10.1257/aer.103.3.570
Author(s)
Beshears, John
Choi, James J.
Fuster, Andreas  
Laibson, David
Madrian, Brigitte C.
Date Issued

2013

Published in
American Economic Review
Volume

103

Issue

3

Start page

570

End page

574

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

OTHER

EPFL units
SFI-AF  
Available on Infoscience
December 7, 2021
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/183744
Logo EPFL, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne
  • Contact
  • infoscience@epfl.ch

  • Follow us on Facebook
  • Follow us on Instagram
  • Follow us on LinkedIn
  • Follow us on X
  • Follow us on Youtube
AccessibilityLegal noticePrivacy policyCookie settingsEnd User AgreementGet helpFeedback

Infoscience is a service managed and provided by the Library and IT Services of EPFL. © EPFL, tous droits réservés