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research article

Testing of asymptomatic individuals for fast feedback-control of COVID-19 pandemic

Mueller, Markus
•
Derlet, Peter M.
•
Mudry, Christopher
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November 1, 2020
Physical Biology

We argue that frequent sampling of the fraction ofa priorinon-symptomatic but infectious humans (either by random or cohort testing) significantly improves the management of the COVID-19 pandemic, when compared to intervention strategies relying on data from symptomatic cases only. This is because such sampling measures the incidence of the disease, the key variable controlled by restrictive measures, and thus anticipates the load on the healthcare system due to progression of the disease. The frequent testing of non-symptomatic infectiousness will (i) significantly improve the predictability of the pandemic, (ii) allow informed and optimized decisions on how to modify restrictive measures, with shorter delay times than the present ones, and (iii) enable the real-time assessment of the efficiency of new means to reduce transmission rates. These advantages are quantified by considering a feedback and control model of mitigation where the feedback is derived from the evolution of the daily measured prevalence. While the basic model we propose aggregates data for the entire population of a country such as Switzerland, we point out generalizations which account for hot spots which are analogous to Anderson-localized regions in the theory of diffusion in random media.

  • Details
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Type
research article
DOI
10.1088/1478-3975/aba6d0
Web of Science ID

WOS:000578256800001

Author(s)
Mueller, Markus
Derlet, Peter M.
Mudry, Christopher
Aeppli, Gabriel  
Date Issued

2020-11-01

Published in
Physical Biology
Volume

17

Issue

6

Article Number

065007

Subjects

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology

•

Biophysics

•

covid-19

•

non-symptomatic testing

•

feedback and control

•

economy

•

pandemic

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
DCG  
Available on Infoscience
October 29, 2020
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/172852
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