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research article

Bayesian approach to SETI

Grimaldi, Claudio  
•
Marcy, Geoffrey W.
October 16, 2018
Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America (PNAS)

The search for technosignatures from hypothetical galactic civilizations is going through a new phase of intense activity. For the first time, a significant fraction of the vast search space is expected to be sampled in the foreseeable future, potentially bringing informative data about the abundance of detectable extraterrestrial civilizations or the lack thereof. Starting from the current state of ignorance about the galactic population of nonnatural electromagnetic signals, we formulate a Bayesian statistical model to infer the mean number of radio signals crossing Earth, assuming either nondetection or the detection of signals in future surveys of the Galaxy. Under fairly noninformative priors, we find that not detecting signals within about 1 kly from Earth, while suggesting the lack of galactic emitters or at best the scarcity thereof, is nonetheless still consistent with a probability exceeding 10% that typically over similar to 100 signals could be crossing Earth, with radiated power analogous to that of the Arecibo radar, but coming from farther in the Milky Way. The existence in the Galaxy of potentially detectable Arecibo-like emitters can be reasonably ruled out only if all-sky surveys detect no such signals up to a radius of about 40 kly, an endeavor requiring detector sensitivities thousands times higher than those of current telescopes. Conversely, finding even one Arecibo-like signal within similar to 1000 light years, a possibility within reach of current detectors, implies almost certainly that typically more than similar to 100 signals of comparable radiated power cross the Earth, yet to be discovered.

  • Details
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Type
research article
DOI
10.1073/pnas.1808578115
Web of Science ID

WOS:000447491300001

Author(s)
Grimaldi, Claudio  
Marcy, Geoffrey W.
Date Issued

2018-10-16

Publisher

National Academy of Sciences

Published in
Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America (PNAS)
Volume

115

Issue

42

Start page

E9755

End page

E9764

Subjects

Multidisciplinary Sciences

•

Science & Technology - Other Topics

•

seti

•

bayesian analysis

•

probability

•

radio telescope

•

milky way

•

milky-way

•

search

•

project

•

life

•

selection

•

signals

•

stars

•

earth

•

model

•

sky

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
LPM  
LPMC  
Available on Infoscience
December 13, 2018
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/152115
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