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research article

PLASIM-ENTSem v1.0: a spatio-temporal emulator of future climate change for impacts assessment

Holden, P. B.
•
Edwards, N. R.
•
Garthwaite, P. H.
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2014
Geoscientific Model Development

Many applications in the evaluation of climate impacts and environmental policy require detailed spatio-temporal projections of future climate. To capture feedbacks from impacted natural or socio-economic systems requires interactive two-way coupling, but this is generally computationally infeasible with even moderately complex general circulation models (GCMs). Dimension reduction using emulation is one solution to this problem, demonstrated here with the GCM PLASIM-ENTS (Planet Simulator coupled with the efficient numerical terrestrial scheme). Our approach generates temporally evolving spatial patterns of climate variables, considering multiple modes of variability in order to capture non-linear feedbacks. The emulator provides a 188-member ensemble of decadally and spatially resolved (similar to 5 degrees resolution) seasonal climate data in response to an arbitrary future CO2 concentration and non-CO2 radiative forcing scenario. We present the PLASIM-ENTS coupled model, the construction of its emulator from an ensemble of transient future simulations, an application of the emulator methodology to produce heating and cooling degree-day projections, the validation of the simulator (with respect to empirical data) and the validation of the emulator (with respect to high-complexity models). We also demonstrate the application to estimates of sea-level rise and associated uncertainty.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.5194/gmd-7-433-2014
Web of Science ID

WOS:000332799400018

Author(s)
Holden, P. B.
Edwards, N. R.
Garthwaite, P. H.
Fraedrich, K.
Lunkeit, F.
Kirk, E.
Labriet, M.
Kanudia, A.
Babonneau, Frédéric
Date Issued

2014

Publisher

Copernicus Gesellschaft Mbh

Published in
Geoscientific Model Development
Volume

7

Issue

1

Start page

433

End page

451

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
LEURE  
Available on Infoscience
April 14, 2014
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/102839
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