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conference paper

Simulation based population synthesis

Farooq, Bilal  
•
Bierlaire, Michel  
•
Hurtubia, Ricardo  
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2013
Transportation Research Part B-Methodological
13th Conference of the International-Association-of-Travel-Behavior-Research (IATBR)

Microsimulation of urban systems evolution requires synthetic population as a key input. Currently, the focus is on treating synthesis as a fitting problem and thus various techniques have been developed, including Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) and Combinatorial Optimization based techniques. The key shortcomings of these procedures include: (a) fitting of one contingency table, while there may be other solutions matching the available data (b) due to cloning rather than true synthesis of the population, losing the heterogeneity that may not have been captured in the microdata (c) over reliance on the accuracy of the data to determine the cloning weights (d) poor scalability with respect to the increase in number of attributes of the synthesized agents. In order to overcome these shortcomings, we propose a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation based approach. Partial views of the joint distribution of agent's attributes that are available from various data sources can be used to simulate draws from the original distribution. The real population from Swiss census is used to compare the performance of simulation based synthesis with the standard IPF. The standard root mean square error statistics indicated that even the worst case simulation based synthesis (SRMSE = 0.35) outperformed the best case IPF synthesis (SRMSE = 0.64). We also used this methodology to generate the synthetic population for Brussels, Belgium where the data availability was highly limited. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Type
conference paper
DOI
10.1016/j.trb.2013.09.012
Web of Science ID

WOS:000330082600016

Author(s)
Farooq, Bilal  
Bierlaire, Michel  
Hurtubia, Ricardo  
Flotterod, Gunnar  
Date Issued

2013

Publisher

Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd

Publisher place

Oxford

Published in
Transportation Research Part B-Methodological
Total of pages

21

Volume

58

Start page

243

End page

263

Subjects

Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation

•

Population synthesis

•

Agent based model

•

Integrated urban systems planning

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
TRANSP-OR  
Event name
13th Conference of the International-Association-of-Travel-Behavior-Research (IATBR)
Available on Infoscience
February 17, 2014
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/100797
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