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research article

ClimateBench v1.0: A Benchmark for Data-Driven Climate Projections

Watson-Parris, D.
•
Rao, Y.
•
Olivie, D.
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October 1, 2022
Journal Of Advances In Modeling Earth Systems

Many different emission pathways exist that are compatible with the Paris climate agreement, and many more are possible that miss that target. While some of the most complex Earth System Models have simulated a small selection of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, it is impractical to use these expensive models to fully explore the space of possibilities. Such explorations therefore mostly rely on one-dimensional impulse response models, or simple pattern scaling approaches to approximate the physical climate response to a given scenario. Here we present ClimateBench-the first benchmarking framework based on a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, AerChemMIP and Detection-Attribution Model Intercomparison Project simulations performed by a full complexity Earth System Model, and a set of baseline machine learning models that emulate its response to a variety of forcers. These emulators can predict annual mean global distributions of temperature, diurnal temperature range and precipitation (including extreme precipitation) given a wide range of emissions and concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and aerosols, allowing them to efficiently probe previously unexplored scenarios. We discuss the accuracy and interpretability of these emulators and consider their robustness to physical constraints such as total energy conservation. Future opportunities incorporating such physical constraints directly in the machine learning models and using the emulators for detection and attribution studies are also discussed. This opens a wide range of opportunities to improve prediction, robustness and mathematical tractability. We hope that by laying out the principles of climate model emulation with clear examples and metrics we encourage engagement from statisticians and machine learning specialists keen to tackle this important and demanding challenge.

  • Details
  • Metrics
Type
research article
DOI
10.1029/2021MS002954
Web of Science ID

WOS:000870529200001

Author(s)
Watson-Parris, D.
•
Rao, Y.
•
Olivie, D.
•
Seland, O.
•
Nowack, P.
•
Camps-Valls, G.
•
Stier, P.
•
Bouabid, S.
•
Dewey, M.
•
Fons, E.
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Date Issued

2022-10-01

Publisher

AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION

Published in
Journal Of Advances In Modeling Earth Systems
Volume

14

Issue

10

Article Number

e2021MS002954

Subjects

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

•

climate

•

emulation

•

precipitation

•

machine learning

•

gaussian-processes

•

north-atlantic

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model

•

attribution

•

system

•

emissions

•

aerosols

•

ocean

•

cycle

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
VDG  
Available on Infoscience
November 7, 2022
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/192034
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