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  4. On Risk Reduction in Kelly Betting Using the Conservative Expected Value
 
conference paper

On Risk Reduction in Kelly Betting Using the Conservative Expected Value

Rujeerapaiboon, Napat  
•
Barmish, B. Ross
•
Kuhn, Daniel  
2018
2018 IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (CDC)
57th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control

The celebrated Kelly betting strategy guarantees, with probability one, higher long-run wealth than any other causal investment strategy. However, on the way to its long-term supremacy, this strategy has a notable downfall: it typically displays high variation in the time-varying realization of the bettor’s level of wealth. Hence, the following question has arisen: For a finite horizon involving N sequential bets, how might Kelly’s scheme be modified so as to remain provably appealing in some sense and also less risky? One way to address this has been to employ fractional Kelly strategies. These strategies are arguably ad-hoc in that they involve scaling down the bet size without a significant theory providing rationale as to how this should be done. The results to follow in this paper can be interpreted as providing a systematic way of carrying out this scaling down process. To this end, we work with the so-called Conservative Expected Value, recently introduced in the literature, as an alternative for the classical expectation. As a first test case for this new paradigm, this paper considers the important special case where all N bets have even-money payoffs, are independent and follow the same Bernoulli distribution.

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Type
conference paper
DOI
10.1109/CDC.2018.8619186
Web of Science ID

WOS:000458114805059

Author(s)
Rujeerapaiboon, Napat  
•
Barmish, B. Ross
•
Kuhn, Daniel  
Date Issued

2018

Published in
2018 IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (CDC)
Total of pages

6

Start page

5801

End page

5806

Subjects

Optimization

•

Games

•

Random variables

•

Investment

•

Systematics

•

Lattices

•

Distribution functions

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
RAO  
Event nameEvent placeEvent date
57th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control

Miami Beach, Florida, USA

December 17-19, 2018

Available on Infoscience
September 8, 2018
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/148174
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