A synthetic diagnostic has been developed for the JET lost alpha scintillator probe, based on the ASCOT fast ion orbit following code and the AFSI fusion source code. The synthetic diagnostic models the velocity space distribution of lost fusion products in the scintillator probe. Validation with experimental measurements is presented, where the synthetic diagnostic is shown to predict the gyroradius and pitch angle of lost DD protons and tritons. Additionally, the synthetic diagnostic reproduces relative differences in total loss rates in multiple phases of the discharge, which can be used as a basis for total loss rate predictions.