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research article

Conditional Density Models for Asset Pricing

Filipovic, Damir  
•
Hughston, L. P.
•
Macrina, Andrea
2012
International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance

We model the dynamics of asset prices and associated derivatives by consideration of the dynamics of the conditional probability density process for the value of an asset at some specified time in the future. In the case where the asset is driven by Brownian motion, an associated "master equation" for the dynamics of the conditional probability density is derived and expressed in integral form. By a "model" for the conditional density process we mean a solution to the master equation along with the specification of (a) the initial density, and (b) the volatility structure of the density. The volatility structure is assumed at any time and for each value of the argument of the density to be a functional of the history of the density up to that time. This functional determines the model for the conditional density. In practice one specifies the functional modulo sufficient parametric freedom to allow for the input of additional option data apart from that implicit in the initial density. The scheme is sufficiently exible to allow for the input of various types of data depending on the nature of the options market and the class of valuation problem being undertaken. Various examples are studied in detail, with exact solutions provided in some cases.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.2139/ssrn.1702871
Author(s)
Filipovic, Damir  
Hughston, L. P.
Macrina, Andrea
Date Issued

2012

Publisher

World Scientific Publishing

Published in
International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance
Volume

15

Start page

1

End page

24

Subjects

Option Pricing

•

Implied Volatility

•

Breeden-Litzenberger Equation

•

Volatility Surface

•

Information-Based Asset Pricing

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
CSF  
Available on Infoscience
August 14, 2013
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/94151
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