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conference paper

Comparison of Bayesian Model Calibration Techniques for Future Application to Fuel Performance Behavior Models

Maccario, S.  
•
Scolaro, A.  
•
Vasiliev, A.
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2024
Proceedings of the International Conference on Physics of Reactors, PHYSOR 2024
International Conference on Physics of Reactors

This paper explores data assimilation methods in the context of Bayesian Calibration for fuel performance models. It compares deterministic and stochastic approaches, concentrating on the Generalized Linear Least Squares (GLLS) method and stochastic techniques, including the Monte Carlo sampling Bayesian updating procedure (MOCABA), Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC), and one Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler, the Adaptive Metropolis (AM). GLLS relies on a first-order approximation of the model and encounters challenges when dealing with non-linear relationships between input and output parameters, particularly for input parameters with substantial uncertainties. While MOCABA and BMC address these limitations, they exhibit discrepancies in certain scenarios. In contrast, MCMC methods, which generate samples directly from arbitrary posterior distributions, offer advantages for models with non-normal parameter distributions, large uncertainties, and strong non-linearities. This study evaluates the applicability limits of GLLS, MOCABA, and BMC, emphasizing the characteristics of the AM sampler as a good candidate for application to fuel performance calculations. To save computational time, we examine three academic application cases designed to represent key features of fuel performance models. The results reveal discrepancies between the data assimilation techniques, highlighting the superior performance of AM for these models. Finally, we assess the computational cost of each technique, demonstrating the larger number of function evaluations needed for the stochastic methods.

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Type
conference paper
DOI
10.13182/PHYSOR24-43853
Scopus ID

2-s2.0-85202875924

Author(s)
Maccario, S.  
•
Scolaro, A.  
•
Vasiliev, A.
•
Hursin, M.  
Date Issued

2024

Publisher

American Nuclear Society

Published in
Proceedings of the International Conference on Physics of Reactors, PHYSOR 2024
ISBN of the book

9780894487972

Start page

551

End page

560

Subjects

Bayesian Model Calibration

•

Data Assimilation

•

Fuel Behavior

•

Markov Chain Monte Carlo

•

OFFBEAT

Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
LRS  
Event nameEvent acronymEvent placeEvent date
International Conference on Physics of Reactors

San Francisco, United States

2024-04-21 - 2024-04-24

Available on Infoscience
January 26, 2025
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/244877
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