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research article

Interpretable temporal-spatial graph attention network for multi-site PV power forecasting

Simeunovic, Jelena
•
Schubnel, Baptiste
•
Alet, Pierre-Jean
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December 1, 2022
Applied Energy

Accurate forecasting of photovoltaic (PV) and wind production is crucial for the integration of more renewable energy sources into the power grid. To address the limited resolution and costs of methods based on numerical weather predictions (NWP), we take PV production data as main input for forecasting. Since PV power is affected by weather and cloud dynamics, we model spatio-temporal correlations between production data by representing PV systems as nodes of a dynamic graph and embedding production data, geographical information and clear-sky irradiance as signals on that graph. We introduce a new temporal-spatial multi -windows graph attention network (TSM-GAT) for predicting future PV power production. TSM-GAT can adapt to the dynamics of the problem, by learning different graphs over time. It consists of temporal attention with an overlapping-window mechanism that finds the temporal correlations and spatial attention with a multi-window mechanism, which captures different dynamical spatio-temporal correlations for different parts of the forecasting horizon. Thus, it is possible to interpret which PV stations have the most influence when making a prediction for short-, medium-and long-term intra-day forecasts. TSM-GAT outperforms multi-site state-of-the-art models for four to six hours ahead predictions, with average NRMSE 12.4% and 10.5% on a real and synthetic dataset, respectively. Furthermore, it outperforms state-of-the-art models that use NWP as inputs for up to five hours ahead predictions. TSM-GAT yields predicted signals with a closer shape to ground truth than state-of-the-art models, which indicates that it is better at capturing cloud motion and may lead to better generalization capabilities.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.120127
Web of Science ID

WOS:000878262700003

Author(s)
Simeunovic, Jelena
Schubnel, Baptiste
Alet, Pierre-Jean
Carrillo, Rafael E.
Frossard, Pascal  
Date Issued

2022-12-01

Publisher

ELSEVIER SCI LTD

Published in
Applied Energy
Volume

327

Article Number

120127

Subjects

Energy & Fuels

•

Engineering, Chemical

•

Engineering

•

photovoltaic systems

•

graph signal processing

•

graph neural networks

•

time series forecasting

•

machine learning

•

neural-network

•

term

•

time

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
LTS4  
Available on Infoscience
December 5, 2022
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/192960
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