Parolini, NicolaDede', LucaArdenghi, GiovanniQuarteroni, Alfio2022-05-092022-05-092022-05-092022-06-0110.1016/j.idm.2022.03.002https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/187655WOS:000788681900004Several epidemiological models have been proposed to study the evolution of COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we propose an extension of the SUIHTER model, to analyse the COVID-19 spreading in Italy, which accounts for the vaccination campaign and the presence of new variants when they become dominant. In particular, the specific features of the variants (e.g. their increased transmission rate) and vaccines (e.g. their efficacy to prevent transmission, hospitalization and death) are modeled, based on clinical evidence. The new model is validated comparing its near-future forecast capabilities with other epidemiological models and exploring different scenario analyses. (C) 2022 The Authors. Publishing services by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co. Ltd.Mathematical & Computational BiologyInfectious DiseasesMathematical & Computational BiologyInfectious Diseasescompartmental modelcovid-19vaccinationvirus variantsforecastscenario analysestext::journal::journal article::research article