Mari, L.Bertuzzo, E.Righetto, L.Casagrandi, R.Gatto, M.Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.Rinaldo, A.2012-01-262012-01-262012-01-26201210.1098/rsif.2011.0304https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/77247WOS:000298380100016We investigate the role of human mobility as a driver for long-range spreading of cholera infections, which primarily propagate through hydrologically controlled ecological corridors. Our aim is to build a spatially explicit model of a disease epidemic, which is relevant to both social and scientific issues. We present a two-layer network model that accounts for the interplay between epidemiological dynamics, hydrological transport and long-distance dissemination of the pathogen Vibrio cholerae owing to host movement, described here by means of a gravity-model approach. We test our model against epidemiological data recorded during the extensive cholera outbreak occurred in the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa during 2000-2001. We show that long-range human movement is fundamental in quantifying otherwise unexplained inter-catchment transport of V. cholerae, thus playing a key role in the formation of regional patterns of cholera epidemics. We also show quantitatively how heterogeneously distributed drinking water supplies and sanitation conditions may affect large-scale cholera transmission, and analyse the effects of different sanitation policies.susceptible-infected-recovered-like modelshydrological transportgravity modelsmulti-layer networkslong-distance dispersalDynamicsClimateSpreadHyperinfectivityStrategiesInfluenzaSystemsMeaslesRatestext::journal::journal article::research article