Austerity in the Aftermath of the Great Recession

Cross-country differences in austerity, defined as government purchases below forecast, account for 75 percent of the observed cross-sectional variation in GDP in advanced economies during 2010-2014. Statistically, austerity is associated with lower GDP, lower inflation and higher net exports. A multi-country DSGE model calibrated to 29 advanced economies generates effects of austerity consistent with the data. Counterfactuals suggest that eliminating austerity would have substantially reduced output losses in Eu- rope. Austerity was so contractionary that debt-to-GDP ratios in some countries increased as a result of endogenous reductions in GDP and tax revenue.


Published in:
Journal of Monetary Economics
Year:
2019
Keywords:
Note:
JEL: E62, F41, F44
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Note: The status of this file is: Anyone


 Record created 2019-05-20, last modified 2020-10-29

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