000264868 001__ 264868
000264868 005__ 20190619220211.0
000264868 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.1371/journal.pone.0213775
000264868 037__ $$aARTICLE
000264868 245__ $$aA minimalist model of extinction and range dynamics of virtual mountain species driven by warming temperatures
000264868 260__ $$c2019-03-18
000264868 269__ $$a2019-03-18
000264868 336__ $$aJournal Articles
000264868 520__ $$aA longstanding question in ecology concerns the prediction of the fate of mountain species under climate change, where climatic and geomorphic factors but also endogenous species characteristics are jointly expected to control species distributions. A significant step forward would single out reliably landscape effects, given their constraining role and relative ease of theoretical manipulation. Here, we address population dynamics in ecosystems where the substrates for ecological interactions are mountain landscapes subject to climate warming. We use a minimalist model of metapopulation dynamics based on virtual species (i.e. a suitable assemblage of focus species) where dispersal processes interact with the spatial structure of the landscape. Climate warming is subsumed by an upward shift of species habitat altering the metapopulation capacity of the landscape and hence species viability. We find that the landscape structure is a powerful determinant of species survival, owing to the specific role of the predictably evolving connectivity of the various habitats. Range shifts and lags in tracking suitable habitat experienced by virtual species under warming conditions are singled out in different landscapes. The range of parameters is identified for which these virtual species (characterized by comparable viability thus restricting their possible fitnesses and niche widths) prove unable to cope with environmental change. The statistics of the proportion of species bound to survive is identified for each landscape, providing the temporal evolution of species range shifts and the related expected occupation patterns. A baseline dynamic model for predicting species fates in evolving habitats is thus provided.
000264868 536__ $$aH2020$$c641762
000264868 536__ $$aEU funding$$c227612
000264868 536__ $$aFNS$$c00021_124930/1
000264868 536__ $$aFNS$$c31003A_135622
000264868 536__ $$aFNS$$cPP00P3_150698
000264868 542__ $$fCC BY
000264868 6531_ $$aClimate change
000264868 6531_ $$aSpecies extinction
000264868 6531_ $$aEcological niches
000264868 6531_ $$aSpecies delimitation
000264868 6531_ $$aMountains
000264868 6531_ $$aSpecies colonization
000264868 6531_ $$aGeomorphology
000264868 6531_ $$aTopography
000264868 700__ $$g190458$$aGiezendanner, Jonathan$$0249659
000264868 700__ $$g182988$$aBertuzzo, Enrico$$0240021
000264868 700__ $$g262879$$aPasetto, Damiano$$0249184
000264868 700__ $$aGuisan, Antoine
000264868 700__ $$0240022$$aRinaldo, Andrea$$g182281
000264868 773__ $$tPLoS ONE$$j14$$q1-19
000264868 8560_ $$fbeatrice.marselli@epfl.ch
000264868 8564_ $$uhttps://infoscience.epfl.ch/record/264868/files/A%20minimalist%20model%20of%20extinction%20and%20range%20dynamics%20of%20virtual%20mountain%20species%20driven%20by%20warming%20temperatures.pdf$$zFinal$$s3921699
000264868 909C0 $$zCharbonnier, Valérie$$xU10273$$pECHO$$manna.rothenbuehler@epfl.ch$$mandrea.rinaldo@epfl.ch$$0252014
000264868 909CO $$particle$$pENAC$$ooai:infoscience.epfl.ch:264868
000264868 960__ $$ajonathan.giezendanner@epfl.ch
000264868 961__ $$afantin.reichler@epfl.ch
000264868 973__ $$aEPFL$$sPUBLISHED$$rREVIEWED
000264868 980__ $$aARTICLE
000264868 981__ $$aoverwrite