000226417 001__ 226417
000226417 005__ 20180913064230.0
000226417 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.1007/s10584-013-0913-2
000226417 022__ $$a1573-1480
000226417 037__ $$aARTICLE
000226417 245__ $$aScenarios for vulnerability: opportunities and constraints in the context of climate change and disaster risk
000226417 260__ $$bSpringer Verlag$$c2015
000226417 269__ $$a2015
000226417 336__ $$aJournal Articles
000226417 520__ $$aMost scientific assessments for climate change adaptation and risk reduction are based on scenarios for climatic change. Scenarios for socio-economic development, partic- ularly in terms of vulnerability and adaptive capacity, are largely lacking. This paper focuses on the utility of socio-economic scenarios for vulnerability, risk and adaptation research. The paper introduces the goals and functions of scenarios in general and reflects on the current global debate around shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). It examines the options and constraints of scenario methods for risk and vulnerability assessments in the context of climate change and natural hazards. Two case studies are used to contrast the opportunities and current constraints in scenario methods at different scales: the global WorldRiskIndex, based on quantitative data and indicators; and a local participatory scenario development process in Jakarta, showing a qualitative approach. The juxtaposition of a quantitative approach with global data and a qualitative-participatory local approach provides new insights on how different methods and scenario techniques can be applied in vulnerability and risk research.
000226417 700__ $$aBirkmann, Joern
000226417 700__ $$aCutter, Susan L.
000226417 700__ $$aRothman, Dale S.
000226417 700__ $$aWelle, Torsten
000226417 700__ $$aGarschagen, Matthias
000226417 700__ $$aVan Ruijven, Bas
000226417 700__ $$aO’Neill, Brian
000226417 700__ $$aPreston, Benjamin L.
000226417 700__ $$aKienberger, Stefan
000226417 700__ $$aCardona, Omar D.
000226417 700__ $$aSiagian, Tiodora
000226417 700__ $$aHidayati, Deny
000226417 700__ $$aSetiadi, Neysa
000226417 700__ $$0249860$$aBinder, Claudia R.$$g265222
000226417 700__ $$aHughes, Barry
000226417 700__ $$aPulwarty, Roger
000226417 773__ $$j133$$k1$$q53-68$$tClimatic Change
000226417 8564_ $$s9297745$$uhttps://infoscience.epfl.ch/record/226417/files/Birkmann%20et%20al_2013_scenario.pdf$$yPublisher's version$$zPublisher's version
000226417 909C0 $$0252556$$pHERUS$$xU13132
000226417 909CO $$ooai:infoscience.tind.io:226417$$particle$$pENAC
000226417 917Z8 $$x255185
000226417 937__ $$aEPFL-ARTICLE-226417
000226417 973__ $$aOTHER$$rREVIEWED$$sPUBLISHED
000226417 980__ $$aARTICLE