Journal article

Event risk, contingent claims and the temporal resolution of uncertainty

We study the pricing and hedging of contingent claims that are subject to Event Risk which we define as rare and unpredictable events whose occurrence may be correlated to, but cannot be hedged perfectly with standard marketed instruments. The super-replication costs of such event sensitive contingent claims (ESCC), in general, provide little guidance for the pricing of these claims. Instead, we study utility based prices under two scenarios of resolution of uncertainty for event risk: when the event is continuously monitored, or when it is revealed only at the payment date. In both cases, we transform the incomplete market optimal portfolio choice problem of an agent endowed with an ESCC into a complete market problem with a state and possibly path-dependent utility function. For negative exponential utility, we obtain an explicit representation of the utility based prices under both information resolution scenarios and this in turn leads us to a simple characterization of the early resolution premium. For constant relative risk aversion utility functions we propose a simple numerical scheme and study the impact of size of the position, wealth and expected return on these prices. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.


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