000178617 001__ 178617
000178617 005__ 20180317092811.0
000178617 022__ $$a0022-1430
000178617 02470 $$2ISI$$a000298224000005
000178617 037__ $$aARTICLE
000178617 245__ $$aModelling the retreat of Grosser Aletschgletscher, Switzerland, in a changing climate
000178617 260__ $$bInternational Glaciological Society$$c2011
000178617 269__ $$a2011
000178617 336__ $$aJournal Articles
000178617 520__ $$aFor more than a century Alpine glaciers have been retreating dramatically, and they are expected to shrink even more quickly over the coming decades. This study addresses the future evolution of Grosser Aletschgletscher, Switzerland, the largest glacier in the European Alps. A three-dimensional combined surface mass-balance and glacier dynamics model was applied. The ice flow was described with the full Stokes equations. The glacier surface evolution was obtained by solving a transport equation for the volume of fluid. Daily surface melt and accumulation were calculated on the basis of climate data. The combined model was validated against several types of measurements made throughout the 20th century. For future climate change, scenarios based on regional climate models in the ENSEMBLES project were used. According to the median climatic evolution, Aletschgletscher was expected to lose 90% of its ice volume by the end of 2100. Even when the model was driven using current climate conditions (the past two decades) the glacier tongue experienced a considerable retreat of 6 km, indicating its strong disequilibrium with the present climate. By including a model for the evolution of supraglacial debris and its effect in reducing glacier melt, we show that this factor can significantly slow future glacier retreat.
000178617 6531_ $$aNumerical-Simulation
000178617 6531_ $$aMass-Balance
000178617 6531_ $$aAlpine Glaciers
000178617 6531_ $$aBernese Alps
000178617 6531_ $$aFree-Surface
000178617 6531_ $$aIce
000178617 6531_ $$aFlow
000178617 6531_ $$aTemperature
000178617 6531_ $$aUnteraargletscher
000178617 6531_ $$aRhonegletscher
000178617 700__ $$0243811$$aJouvet, Guillaume$$g173273$$uSwiss Fed Inst Technol EPFL, Math Inst Computat Sci & Engn, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland
000178617 700__ $$aHuss, Matthias$$uUniv Fribourg, Dept Geosci, CH-1700 Fribourg, Switzerland
000178617 700__ $$aFunk, Martin$$uETH, Lab Hydraul Hydrol & Glaciol VAW, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland
000178617 700__ $$aBlatter, Heinz$$uETH, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland
000178617 773__ $$j57$$q1033-1045$$tJournal Of Glaciology
000178617 909CO $$ooai:infoscience.tind.io:178617$$particle$$pSB
000178617 909C0 $$0252201$$pASN$$xU10795
000178617 917Z8 $$x106185
000178617 937__ $$aEPFL-ARTICLE-178617
000178617 973__ $$aEPFL$$rREVIEWED$$sPUBLISHED
000178617 980__ $$aARTICLE