Uncertainties in photochemical grid modeling of ozone. The impact of uncertainties in meteorological inputs

Eulerian photochem. grid models are widely used in the making of policy decisions concerning emission controls. However, significant uncertainties persist in a host of crucial input parameters. Quantifying and understanding their implications have become imperative from both the scientific and policy perspectives. Meteorol. uncertainties have a special significance because efforts to quantify them using conventional techniques based on expert ests. have failed to account for the complex correlations in their nonlinear spatial and temporal evolution. A comprehensive effort to quantify meteorol. uncertainties has been accomplished by subjecting a mesoscale meteorol. model to Monte Carlo simulations based on uncertainties in key base input parameters for the 3-day summer smog POLLUMET episode over the Swiss plateau. Monte Carlo uncertainty anal. based on the resulting meteorol. input uncertainties was then carried out using a photochem. grid model. Preliminary post-simulation anal. and statistics on the uncertainties in peak ozone estn. and the significance of considering correlations among inputs in sampling are presented.


Published in:
Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases: Scientific Understanding, Control and Implementation, 259-264
Year:
2000
ISBN:
978-94-015-9343-4
Keywords:
Note:
Copyright 2003 ACS
CAPLUS
AN 2000:888814
CAN 134:182524
59-2
Air Pollution and Industrial Hygiene
74
Laboratory for air and soil pollution,Swiss Federal research institute,Lausanne,Switz. FIELD URL:
Conference
69ASWB
written in English.
Environmental modeling (Monte Carlo; meteorol. input uncertainty impact in photochem. grid modeling of ozone); Air pollution (control; meteorol. input uncertainty impact in photochem. grid modeling of ozone); Environmental modeling; Weather (meteorol. input uncertainty impact in photochem. grid modeling of ozone); Air pollution (photochem.; meteorol. input uncertainty impact in photochem. grid modeling of ozone); Wind (velocity; meteorol. input uncertainty impact in photochem. grid modeling of ozone)
Hanna, S; Atmospheric environment 1998, 32, 3619|Kumar, N; Atmospheric environment 1995, 30, 1989|Pergo, S; Meteorl Atmos Phys 1999, 70, 43|MacRae, G; Atmospheric environment 1982, 16, 679
Laboratories:




 Record created 2011-02-01, last modified 2018-01-28


Rate this document:

Rate this document:
1
2
3
 
(Not yet reviewed)