A New Measure of Travel Time Reliability for In-Vehicle Navigation Systems
This article introduces a new measure of travel time reliability for implementation in the dynamic routing algorithm of an intelligent car navigation system. The measure is based on the log-normal distribution of travel time on a link and consists of two indices corresponding to the extreme values of the distribution, such that they reflect the shortest and longest travel times that may be experienced on the link. Through a series of mathematical manipulations, the indices are expressed in terms of the characteristic values of the speed distribution on the link. An expression relating the indices of a route and the indices of the individual links forming it is derived. The accuracy of the measure is then assessed through a field experiment and the results are presented.