Infoscience

Thesis

Three steps toward modeling Swiss post-2012 climate policies

This thesis presents three steps toward a more precise modeling of climate policies using hybrid models. Specific hybrid models have been devised and used to analyze different post-Kyoto Swiss climate policies. Chapter 1 presents a rather simple hybrid model that allows to use a bottom-up model to obtain the fuel mix that would result from the application of economic instruments and technical regulations. The fuel mix is then dynamically used in a top-down model to asses the economic impacts of climate policies. The model is used in particular to assess the taxes that would be required if Switzerland would undertake GHG emissions abatement of 20% by 2020 and 50% by 2050. Chapter 2 presents a more integrated hybrid model that also links residential investments and energy prices. It is used to assess the impacts of a number of ambitious climate policies in Switzerland, with a special focus on the dilemma between domestic GHG emissions abatement and the purchase of foreign emissions certificates. Chapter 3 presents a more complex hybrid model that allows to take into account the various instruments and regulations for curbing the emissions in the industrial sector, the residential sector as well as the transport sector. Different from the first two chapters, where policy scenarios are rather simplified and consider mainly long term targets, the model is used to analyze the specific climate policies that were proposed as a result of the consultation procedure on the revision of the Swiss CO2 Law that took place before March 2009.

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